LMT — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Price vs. growth and Cash it generates. Most lacking: Business quality and Room to grow.
Worth $149 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $1.49 T.
Sales +11% last quarter (year over year) and +6% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 12%, operating margin 11%, return on equity 80%.
Free cash flow $5.6 B a year = 3.8% of its value.
Trades at 1.9× sales: 0.22 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 10% of its value.
Government contracts with firm money = 0.7% of its value · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 0.1%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (81%) · above its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 20 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year LMT is up 31.3%. Over about two years: +18.4%.
- Today it sits 4.9% below its 52-week high ($676.70) and +46.5% above the low ($439.19).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 27.3%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +10.5%. Worst day: -4.8%.
- Annual volatility around 33%: in a normal year a ±33% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 61% | $643.43 +0.0% | $630.39 – $656.74 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 61% | $643.86 +0.1% | $621.43 – $667.11 |
| 1 week | Strongly bullish | 62% | $644.30 +0.2% | $615.47 – $674.49 |
| 15 days | Strongly bullish | 62% | $645.39 +0.3% | $604.93 – $688.57 |
| 1 month | Strongly bullish | 61% | $647.81 +0.7% | $589.79 – $711.53 |
| 3 months | Strongly bullish | 60% | $657.10 +2.2% | $558.53 – $773.06 |
Recent momentum: +27.0% over 20 days · +9.4% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 LMT government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Lockheed Martin Corp., Rotary and Mission Systems, Littleton, Colorado, was awarded an $88,560,319 cost-plus-fixed-fee, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract for the Radiant Mercury program.
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value.
Lockheed Martin, Rotary and Missions Systems, Liverpool, New York, was awarded a $74,294,440 firm-fixed-price modification to previously-awarded contract N00024-20-C-5503 for production of Surface Electronic Warfare Improvement Program AN/SLQ-32(V)6 systems.
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $0 M. Stock since the announcement: +21.6%.
Lockheed Martin Corp., Owego, New York, was awarded a $117,118,040 cost-no-fee, cost-plus-fixed-fee, firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract for Generation II radar frequency interferometer post-production support services for Apache attack helicopters.
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Stock since the announcement: +26%.
Seven-year contract to quadruple production of THAAD anti-missile interceptors.
💡 Multi-year anchor contract: missile-defense revenue visibility out to roughly 2033.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
Dedicated reportLockheed Martin: $230 billion in ordersThe world's largest defense contractor just signed $65B in a single quarter, including a $35B contract to quadruple THAA…9 pp. · Free preview →
Golden Dome: The shield and who builds it$185 billion per the Pentagon, $1.2 trillion per Congress's budget office. The most ambitious missile-defense program si…6 pp. · Free preview →
Defense budget 2027: The $1.5 trillion and where it goesThe largest U.S. military spending increase in generations: +44% in a year. Ships, missiles, drones, AI and Golden Dome.…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about LMT
Could LMT be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 51/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has LMT gone up in the last year?
Lockheed Martin (LMT) is up 31.3% over the last 12 months and trades at $643.21, 4.9% below its 52-week high ($676.70). 52-week range: $439.19 – $676.70.
How volatile is LMT stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 33% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 27.3%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does LMT have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 4 contracts; the most recent: Navy, $89 M (ceiling), Oct 26, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy LMT?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bullish technical bias, RSI 88 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 61% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
Is there a full analysis of LMT?
Yes: the Faro Library report "Lockheed Martin: $230 billion in orders" (9 pages), built from its official filings. It has a free preview.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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