AMD — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Sales engine and Balance sheet. Most lacking: Room to grow and Cash it generates.
Capped at 50 for size: it is so big that ×10 would require an off-the-charts valuation.
Worth $762 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $7.62 T.
Sales +50% last quarter (year over year) and +34% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 56%, operating margin 17%, return on equity 10%.
Free cash flow $8.8 B a year = 1.2% of its value.
Trades at 18.5× sales: 0.44 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 1% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 0.4%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (59%) · above its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 84 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year AMD is up 83.2%. Over about two years: +231.8%.
- Today it sits 28.1% below its 52-week high ($649.42) and +144.5% above the low ($190.95).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 28.1%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 54% of days. Best day: +18.6%. Worst day: -17.3%.
- Annual volatility around 68%: in a normal year a ±68% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 42% | $467.95 +0.2% | $448.28 – $488.49 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 43% | $470.19 +0.7% | $436.48 – $506.50 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 44% | $472.43 +1.2% | $429.17 – $520.05 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 47% | $478.09 +2.4% | $417.37 – $547.64 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 51% | $490.78 +5.1% | $403.09 – $597.54 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 59% | $542.39 +16.2% | $385.70 – $762.73 |
Recent momentum: -26.1% over 20 days · -3.4% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for AMD. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Could AMD be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 50/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has AMD gone up in the last year?
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up 83.2% over the last 12 months and trades at $466.84, 28.1% below its 52-week high ($649.42). 52-week range: $190.95 – $649.42.
How volatile is AMD stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 68% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 28.1%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does AMD have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy AMD?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 29 (oversold zone), price below its 50-day average and an estimated 51% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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