NVDA — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Sales engine and Business quality. Most lacking: Room to grow and Cash it generates.
Capped at 50 for size: it is so big that ×10 would require an off-the-charts valuation.
Worth $4.89 T. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $48.89 T.
Sales +106% last quarter (year over year) and +65% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 75%, operating margin 66%, return on equity 117%.
Free cash flow $41.8 B a year = 0.9% of its value.
Trades at 16.1× sales: 0.19 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 0% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 4.0%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (48%) · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 12 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year NVDA is down 0.2%. Over about two years: +48.8%.
- Today it sits 15.4% below its 52-week high ($239.24) and +22.6% above the low ($165.17).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 20.2%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +8.7%. Worst day: -6.2%.
- Annual volatility around 36%: in a normal year a ±36% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 41% | $202.62 +0.1% | $198.04 – $207.30 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 41% | $202.94 +0.2% | $195.07 – $211.13 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 42% | $203.26 +0.4% | $193.15 – $213.91 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 44% | $204.07 +0.8% | $189.86 – $219.35 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 46% | $205.87 +1.7% | $185.42 – $228.58 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 51% | $212.87 +5.1% | $177.59 – $255.17 |
Recent momentum: -15.3% over 20 days · -9.6% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for NVDA. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
Dedicated reportNVIDIA: The factory of artificial intelligence$96B in one quarter, a 75% gross margin and $108B guidance for the next. The world's most valuable company, explained wi…9 pp. · Free preview →
Micron: The memory supercycleFrom $9B to $54B per quarter in one year. An 87% gross margin. A stock up 12x in five years. Why memory became AI's bott…8 pp. · Free preview →
Sector study: AI's thirst for electricityBig tech will spend ~$700 billion on data centers in 2026. Each one needs power 24 hours a day. The whole chain —generat…7 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about NVDA
Could NVDA be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 50/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has NVDA fallen in the last year?
NVIDIA (NVDA) is down 0.2% over the last 12 months and trades at $202.46, 15.4% below its 52-week high ($239.24). 52-week range: $165.17 – $239.24.
How volatile is NVDA stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 36% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 20.2%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does NVDA have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy NVDA?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 27 (oversold zone), price below its 50-day average and an estimated 46% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
Is there a full analysis of NVDA?
Yes: the Faro Library report "NVIDIA: The factory of artificial intelligence" (9 pages), built from its official filings. It has a free preview.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
🔦 Keep analyzing
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