AMZN — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Business quality and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Room to grow and Cash it generates.
Worth $2.66 T. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $26.56 T.
Sales +12% last quarter (year over year) and +12% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 51%, operating margin 14%, return on equity 27%.
Free cash flow −$34.7 B a year = -1.3% of its value (burning cash).
Trades at 3.3× sales: 0.27 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 7% of its value.
Government contracts with firm money = 0.0% of its value · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 8.8%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (54%) · above its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 16 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year AMZN is up 10.2%. Over about two years: +25.5%.
- Today it sits 13.5% below its 52-week high ($284.02) and +23.6% above the low ($198.79).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 21.7%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +15.3%. Worst day: -5.6%.
- Annual volatility around 38%: in a normal year a ±38% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 43% | $245.74 +0.0% | $239.97 – $251.65 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 43% | $245.97 +0.1% | $236.05 – $256.29 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 44% | $246.19 +0.2% | $233.46 – $259.62 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 45% | $246.75 +0.5% | $228.90 – $265.99 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 47% | $247.99 +1.0% | $222.42 – $276.50 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 50% | $252.77 +2.9% | $209.34 – $305.20 |
Recent momentum: -2.3% over 20 days · -10.5% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 AMZN government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Amazon web services (aws) cloud hosting services
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $60 M. Stock since the announcement: -2.3%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about AMZN
Could AMZN be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 44/100 (weak): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has AMZN gone up in the last year?
Amazon.com (AMZN) is up 10.2% over the last 12 months and trades at $245.63, 13.5% below its 52-week high ($284.02). 52-week range: $198.79 – $284.02.
How volatile is AMZN stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 38% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 21.7%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does AMZN have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 1 contract; the most recent: Homeland Security, $60 M, Sep 1, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy AMZN?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 40, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 47% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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