Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 44% | $201.00 +0.1% | $197.59 – $204.46 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 45% | $201.40 +0.3% | $195.53 – $207.45 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 46% | $201.81 +0.5% | $194.24 – $209.67 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 48% | $202.83 +1.0% | $192.16 – $214.09 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 51% | $205.09 +2.1% | $189.64 – $221.80 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 58% | $213.95 +6.6% | $186.81 – $245.03 |
Recent momentum: -10.0% over 20 days · +13.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Work on the F135 propulsion system for the F-35 fighter.
💡 Steady F-35 sustainment flow: recurring aftermarket revenue.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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