RTX — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Price vs. growth and Faro seal. Most lacking: Room to grow and Sales engine.
Worth $274 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $2.74 T.
Sales +11% last quarter (year over year) and +10% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 21%, operating margin 16%, return on equity 13%.
Free cash flow $8.3 B a year = 3.0% of its value.
Trades at 2.9× sales: 0.27 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 11% of its value.
Government contracts with firm money = 0.3% of its value · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 0.1%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (60%) · above its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 2 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year RTX is up 14.3%. Over about two years: +71.9%.
- Today it sits 10.1% below its 52-week high ($225.49) and +20.7% above the low ($168.02).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 20.1%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 52% of days. Best day: +7.3%. Worst day: -4.4%.
- Annual volatility around 24%: in a normal year a ±24% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 60% | $203.01 +0.1% | $199.92 – $206.15 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 61% | $203.45 +0.3% | $198.12 – $208.93 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 62% | $203.89 +0.5% | $197.02 – $211.00 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 62% | $205.00 +1.1% | $195.30 – $215.19 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 64% | $207.46 +2.3% | $193.39 – $222.56 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 68% | $217.14 +7.1% | $192.26 – $245.24 |
Recent momentum: +10.0% over 20 days · -9.1% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 RTX government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Raytheon Co., Tucson, Arizona, has been awarded a $350,000,000 ceiling increase modification (P00014) to previously awarded contract for Small Diameter Bomb II life cycle support (GBU-53/B).
💡 Worth 0.13% of the company's market value. Stock since the announcement: +1.4%.
This modification provides for a non-competitive, two-year extension and increases the contract ceiling from $2,605,033,000 to $2,999,033,000.
💡 Worth 0.98% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $112 M. Stock since the announcement: +3.1%.
Raytheon Co., Marlborough, Massachusetts, has been awarded an $8,000,000,000 maximum ceiling, cost-plus-fixed-fee, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract for the procurement of terminal developmental modernization, production restart services, and technical studies associated with Air Force Nuclear…
💡 Worth 3.01% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $24 M. Stock since the announcement: +7.9%.
Work on the F135 propulsion system for the F-35 fighter.
💡 Steady F-35 sustainment flow: recurring aftermarket revenue.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
Golden Dome: The shield and who builds it$185 billion per the Pentagon, $1.2 trillion per Congress's budget office. The most ambitious missile-defense program si…6 pp. · Free preview →
Defense budget 2027: The $1.5 trillion and where it goesThe largest U.S. military spending increase in generations: +44% in a year. Ships, missiles, drones, AI and Golden Dome.…6 pp. · Free preview →
Contracts Radar: Where $220 billion actually wentTwo months of federal contracts read one by one: 258 awards, which agencies pay, which companies get paid, how much mone…8 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about RTX
Could RTX be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 49/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has RTX gone up in the last year?
RTX (RTX) is up 14.3% over the last 12 months and trades at $202.79, 10.1% below its 52-week high ($225.49). 52-week range: $168.02 – $225.49.
How volatile is RTX stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 24% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 20.1%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does RTX have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 4 contracts; the most recent: Air Force, $350 M (ceiling), Oct 22, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy RTX?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 75 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 64% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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