MU — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Sales engine and Business quality. Most lacking: Room to grow and Faro seal.
Capped at 50 for size: it is so big that ×10 would require an off-the-charts valuation.
Worth $943 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $9.43 T.
Sales +379% last quarter (year over year) and +256% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 81%, operating margin 81%, return on equity 88%.
Free cash flow $29.1 B a year = 3.1% of its value.
Trades at 7.1× sales: 0.05 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 4% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 0.2%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (60%) · above its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 266 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year MU is up 272.1%. Over about two years: +719.4%.
- Today it sits 31.3% below its 52-week high ($1,213.56) and +314.0% above the low ($201.37).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 39.1%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 52% of days. Best day: +19.3%. Worst day: -13.3%.
- Annual volatility around 73%: in a normal year a ±73% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 43% | $835.58 +0.2% | $798.15 – $874.76 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 44% | $839.57 +0.7% | $775.50 – $908.92 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 45% | $843.57 +1.2% | $761.41 – $934.60 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 48% | $853.68 +2.4% | $738.51 – $986.80 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 51% | $876.33 +5.1% | $710.34 – $1,081.11 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 59% | $968.49 +16.2% | $673.18 – $1,393.35 |
Recent momentum: -21.7% over 20 days · -5.0% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 MU government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
CHIPS Act grant for memory (DRAM) fabs in the United States.
💡 Domestic memory production, critical for AI and defense.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
Dedicated reportMicron: The memory supercycleFrom $9B to $54B per quarter in one year. An 87% gross margin. A stock up 12x in five years. Why memory became AI's bott…8 pp. · Free preview →
NVIDIA: The factory of artificial intelligence$96B in one quarter, a 75% gross margin and $108B guidance for the next. The world's most valuable company, explained wi…9 pp. · Free preview →
Sector study: AI's thirst for electricityBig tech will spend ~$700 billion on data centers in 2026. Each one needs power 24 hours a day. The whole chain —generat…7 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about MU
Could MU be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 50/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has MU gone up in the last year?
Micron Technology (MU) is up 272.1% over the last 12 months and trades at $833.59, 31.3% below its 52-week high ($1,213.56). 52-week range: $201.37 – $1,213.56.
How volatile is MU stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 73% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 39.1%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does MU have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 1 contract; the most recent: Department of Commerce (CHIPS Act), Up to $6.17B, Feb 15, 2025.
Is now a good time to buy MU?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 38, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 51% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
Is there a full analysis of MU?
Yes: the Faro Library report "Micron: The memory supercycle" (8 pages), built from its official filings. It has a free preview.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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