NFLX — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Cash it generates and Business quality. Most lacking: Room to grow and Faro seal.
Worth $260 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $2.60 T.
Sales +12% last quarter (year over year) and +16% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 51%, operating margin 35%, return on equity 53%.
Free cash flow $25.5 B a year = 9.8% of its value.
Trades at 5.2× sales: 0.38 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 4% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 0.6%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 54 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year NFLX is down 42.8%. Over about two years: -17.5%.
- Today it sits 46.1% below its 52-week high ($115.75) and +0.6% above the low ($61.99).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 46.4%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 45% of days. Best day: +13.8%. Worst day: -9.7%.
- Annual volatility around 36%: in a normal year a ±36% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 38% | $62.32 -0.0% | $60.92 – $63.75 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 38% | $62.27 -0.1% | $59.87 – $64.76 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 37% | $62.22 -0.2% | $59.14 – $65.46 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 36% | $62.10 -0.4% | $57.80 – $66.72 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 34% | $61.84 -0.8% | $55.73 – $68.61 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 32% | $60.85 -2.4% | $50.82 – $72.85 |
Recent momentum: -7.6% over 20 days · -15.9% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for NFLX. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about NFLX
Could NFLX be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 60/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has NFLX fallen in the last year?
Netflix (NFLX) is down 42.8% over the last 12 months and trades at $62.34, 46.1% below its 52-week high ($115.75). 52-week range: $61.99 – $115.75.
How volatile is NFLX stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 36% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 46.4%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does NFLX have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy NFLX?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 26 (oversold zone), price below its 50-day average and an estimated 34% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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