RKLB — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year RKLB is down 14.5%. Over about two years: +362.8%.
- Today it sits 65.3% below its 52-week high ($150.23) and +31.9% above the low ($39.48).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 66.2%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +34.2%. Worst day: -14.7%.
- Annual volatility around 74%: in a normal year a ±74% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 40% | $52.19 +0.2% | $49.80 – $54.70 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 41% | $52.44 +0.7% | $48.35 – $56.88 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 41% | $52.69 +1.2% | $47.45 – $58.52 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 42% | $53.32 +2.4% | $45.97 – $61.85 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 43% | $54.74 +5.1% | $44.15 – $67.87 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 48% | $60.50 +16.2% | $41.69 – $87.79 |
Recent momentum: -28.7% over 20 days · -37.1% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 RKLB government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Largest launch contract in company history: 12 suborbital launches with up to 6 more, supporting hypersonic and missile-defence testing, flying mainly from a new Rocket Lab pad at Kodiak, Alaska.
💡 Rocket Lab stops being priced as a small-satellite launcher and starts being priced as a missile-defence test provider — a customer that pays on schedule and does not churn.
Prime contract to design and build 18 missile-tracking satellites (Tranche 3 / PWSA).
💡 RKLB's largest contract: it establishes the company as a national-security space prime.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
Dedicated reportRocket Lab: From small rockets to space powerhouseRecord revenue, $2.36B in backlog, the Iridium deal and a Neutron about to reach the pad. And a stock 66% below its high…11 pp. · Free preview →
The space economy the government pays forThe Space Force, SDA and NASA are the anchor customer of the new space race. SpaceX is now public. Who launches, who bui…6 pp. · Free preview →
Golden Dome: The shield and who builds it$185 billion per the Pentagon, $1.2 trillion per Congress's budget office. The most ambitious missile-defense program si…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about RKLB
How much has RKLB fallen in the last year?
Rocket Lab (RKLB) is down 14.5% over the last 12 months and trades at $52.07, 65.3% below its 52-week high ($150.23). 52-week range: $39.48 – $150.23.
How volatile is RKLB stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 74% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 66.2%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does RKLB have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 2 contracts; the most recent: U.S. Space Force (SSC / RSLP), $266M, Jul 27, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy RKLB?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 32, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 43% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
Is there a full analysis of RKLB?
Yes: the Faro Library report "Rocket Lab: From small rockets to space powerhouse" (11 pages), built from its official filings. It has a free preview.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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