MSFT — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Business quality and Balance sheet. Most lacking: Room to grow and Cash it generates.
Capped at 50 for size: it is so big that ×10 would require an off-the-charts valuation.
Worth $3.77 T. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $37.66 T.
Sales +19% last quarter (year over year) and +18% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 68%, operating margin 50%, return on equity 34%.
Free cash flow $3.0 B a year = 0.1% of its value.
Trades at 10.9× sales: 0.59 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 2% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 0.1%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (78%) · above its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 10 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year MSFT is down 3.5%. Over about two years: +24.2%.
- Today it sits 6.7% below its 52-week high ($543.45) and +43.7% above the low ($352.83).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 32.9%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 49% of days. Best day: +15.5%. Worst day: -10.0%.
- Annual volatility around 35%: in a normal year a ±35% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 48% | $507.34 +0.0% | $496.33 – $518.60 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 49% | $507.78 +0.1% | $488.84 – $527.46 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 49% | $508.22 +0.2% | $483.88 – $533.79 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 50% | $509.32 +0.4% | $475.17 – $545.93 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 52% | $511.76 +0.9% | $462.79 – $565.91 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 55% | $521.16 +2.8% | $437.83 – $620.35 |
Recent momentum: -3.4% over 20 days · +1.4% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for MSFT. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Could MSFT be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 50/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has MSFT fallen in the last year?
Microsoft (MSFT) is down 3.5% over the last 12 months and trades at $507.12, 6.7% below its 52-week high ($543.45). 52-week range: $352.83 – $543.45.
How volatile is MSFT stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 35% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 32.9%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does MSFT have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy MSFT?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: neutral technical bias, RSI 28 (oversold zone), price below its 50-day average and an estimated 52% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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