TSLA — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year TSLA is down 8.4%. Over about two years: +66.0%.
- Today it sits 17.7% below its 52-week high ($489.88) and +35.1% above the low ($298.32).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 39.1%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +8.5%. Worst day: -14.5%.
- Annual volatility around 51%: in a normal year a ±51% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 60% | $403.53 +0.1% | $390.83 – $416.64 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 60% | $404.35 +0.3% | $382.57 – $427.37 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 60% | $405.17 +0.5% | $377.22 – $435.19 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 59% | $407.24 +1.0% | $368.08 – $450.55 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 58% | $411.81 +2.2% | $355.70 – $476.78 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 59% | $429.76 +6.6% | $333.45 – $553.88 |
Recent momentum: +6.4% over 20 days · +22.7% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for TSLA. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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How much has TSLA fallen in the last year?
Tesla (TSLA) is down 8.4% over the last 12 months and trades at $403.12, 17.7% below its 52-week high ($489.88). 52-week range: $298.32 – $489.88.
How volatile is TSLA stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 51% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 39.1%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does TSLA have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy TSLA?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 62, price above its 50-day average and an estimated 58% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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