INTC — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year INTC is up 49.3%. Over about two years: +166.3%.
- Today it sits 57.4% below its 52-week high ($140.94) and +78.4% above the low ($33.62).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 57.4%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 49% of days. Best day: +23.6%. Worst day: -28.6%.
- Annual volatility around 90%: in a normal year a ±90% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 39% | $60.09 +0.2% | $56.79 – $63.57 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 39% | $60.32 +0.6% | $54.71 – $66.52 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 39% | $60.56 +1.0% | $53.39 – $68.70 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 40% | $61.16 +2.0% | $51.17 – $73.10 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 41% | $62.49 +4.2% | $48.26 – $80.93 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 45% | $67.86 +13.2% | $43.37 – $106.19 |
Recent momentum: -48.4% over 20 days · -41.0% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 INTC government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
CHIPS Act grant to manufacture advanced chips on U.S. soil.
💡 Direct public money to reshore chip manufacturing.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
NVIDIA: The factory of artificial intelligence$96B in one quarter, a 75% gross margin and $108B guidance for the next. The world's most valuable company, explained wi…9 pp. · Free preview →
Micron: The memory supercycleFrom $9B to $54B per quarter in one year. An 87% gross margin. A stock up 12x in five years. Why memory became AI's bott…8 pp. · Free preview →
Sector study: AI's thirst for electricityBig tech will spend ~$700 billion on data centers in 2026. Each one needs power 24 hours a day. The whole chain —generat…7 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about INTC
How much has INTC gone up in the last year?
Intel (INTC) is up 49.3% over the last 12 months and trades at $59.97, 57.4% below its 52-week high ($140.94). 52-week range: $33.62 – $140.94.
How volatile is INTC stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 90% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 57.4%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does INTC have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 1 contract; the most recent: Department of Commerce (CHIPS Act), Up to $7.86B, Mar 1, 2025.
Is now a good time to buy INTC?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 19 (oversold zone), price below its 50-day average and an estimated 41% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
🔦 Keep analyzing
Other stocks Faro watches