Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 38% | $519.88 -0.0% | $511.13 – $528.79 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 38% | $519.87 -0.0% | $504.79 – $535.39 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 37% | $519.85 -0.0% | $500.48 – $539.98 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 36% | $519.81 -0.0% | $492.63 – $548.50 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 36% | $519.73 -0.0% | $480.81 – $561.81 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 36% | $519.42 -0.1% | $453.90 – $594.39 |
Recent momentum: -9.0% over 20 days · -4.1% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
F-35 sustainment in South Korea, Japan and Italy.
💡 NOC gets paid for globally maintaining the largest fighter program in the world.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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