NOC — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Cash it generates and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Sales engine and Room to grow.
Worth $78.9 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $789 B.
Sales +7% last quarter (year over year) and +2% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 20%, operating margin 13%, return on equity 26%.
Free cash flow $3.1 B a year = 4.0% of its value.
Trades at 1.8× sales: 0.40 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 17% of its value.
Government contracts with firm money = 0.5% of its value · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 0.3%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (28%) · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 14 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year NOC is down 4.0%. Over about two years: +9.4%.
- Today it sits 27.7% below its 52-week high ($768.02) and +17.3% above the low ($473.46).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 38.4%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 48% of days. Best day: +6.0%. Worst day: -7.0%.
- Annual volatility around 28%: in a normal year a ±28% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 60% | $555.42 +0.0% | $545.85 – $565.16 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 60% | $555.62 +0.1% | $539.14 – $572.61 |
| 1 week | Strongly bullish | 60% | $555.82 +0.1% | $534.63 – $577.85 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 58% | $556.32 +0.2% | $526.57 – $587.76 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 56% | $557.43 +0.4% | $514.75 – $603.66 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 54% | $561.68 +1.1% | $489.28 – $644.78 |
Recent momentum: +16.6% over 20 days · -2.8% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 NOC government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Northrop Grumman Corp., Charlottesville, Virginia, was awarded a $29,219,125 cost-plus-incentive-fee, cost-plus-fixed-fee, firm-fixed-price, and cost only contract for low-rate initial production units and maintenance assistance modules, engineering support, integration, and test of the AN/WSN-12 Inertial…
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $3 M. Stock since the announcement: +18.3%.
Northrop Grumman Systems Corp., Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, has been awarded an estimated $49,528,809 cost-plus-fixed-fee modification (P00010) to a six-year firm-fixed-price contract to extend the period of performance for the manufacture and repair of required tooling and production of B-2 rudder and elevon.
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Stock since the announcement: +16.9%.
Northrop Grumman Systems Corp., Meadows, Illinois, has been awarded a $36,987,335 modification (P00187) to previously awarded for F-16 Integrated Viper Electronic Warfare Suite – Electronic Warfare Radio Frequency Compatibility, Big Iron effort.
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $16 M. Stock since the announcement: +11.8%.
F-35 sustainment in South Korea, Japan and Italy.
💡 NOC gets paid for globally maintaining the largest fighter program in the world.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
Golden Dome: The shield and who builds it$185 billion per the Pentagon, $1.2 trillion per Congress's budget office. The most ambitious missile-defense program si…6 pp. · Free preview →
Defense budget 2027: The $1.5 trillion and where it goesThe largest U.S. military spending increase in generations: +44% in a year. Ships, missiles, drones, AI and Golden Dome.…6 pp. · Free preview →
Contracts Radar: Where $220 billion actually wentTwo months of federal contracts read one by one: 258 awards, which agencies pay, which companies get paid, how much mone…8 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about NOC
Could NOC be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 48/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has NOC fallen in the last year?
Northrop Grumman (NOC) is down 4.0% over the last 12 months and trades at $555.32, 27.7% below its 52-week high ($768.02). 52-week range: $473.46 – $768.02.
How volatile is NOC stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 28% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 38.4%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does NOC have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 4 contracts; the most recent: Navy, $29 M, Oct 2, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy NOC?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 77 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 56% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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