TSM — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Business quality and Cash it generates. Most lacking: Room to grow and Faro seal.
Capped at 50 for size: it is so big that ×10 would require an off-the-charts valuation.
Worth $2.07 T. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $20.67 T.
Sales +51% last quarter (year over year) and +32% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 66%, operating margin 59%, return on equity 42%.
Free cash flow $1.20 T a year = 58.2% of its value.
Trades at 0.4× sales: 0.01 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 155% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 0.0%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (60%) · below its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 23 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year TSM is up 31.5%. Over about two years: +108.1%.
- Today it sits 17.9% below its 52-week high ($485.80) and +44.9% above the low ($275.06).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 21.5%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 52% of days. Best day: +7.6%. Worst day: -7.0%.
- Annual volatility around 39%: in a normal year a ±39% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 42% | $399.22 +0.1% | $389.60 – $409.07 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 43% | $400.39 +0.4% | $383.83 – $417.66 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 44% | $401.57 +0.7% | $380.26 – $424.07 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 46% | $404.53 +1.5% | $374.50 – $436.96 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 50% | $411.12 +3.1% | $367.65 – $459.72 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 58% | $437.27 +9.7% | $360.32 – $530.66 |
Recent momentum: -17.9% over 20 days · -5.1% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 TSM government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
CHIPS Act grant for three leading-edge fabs in Phoenix, Arizona.
💡 The U.S. is paying to bring the world's most advanced manufacturing onto its own soil.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
NVIDIA: The factory of artificial intelligence$96B in one quarter, a 75% gross margin and $108B guidance for the next. The world's most valuable company, explained wi…9 pp. · Free preview →
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Sector study: AI's thirst for electricityBig tech will spend ~$700 billion on data centers in 2026. Each one needs power 24 hours a day. The whole chain —generat…7 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about TSM
Could TSM be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 50/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has TSM gone up in the last year?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is up 31.5% over the last 12 months and trades at $398.63, 17.9% below its 52-week high ($485.80). 52-week range: $275.06 – $485.80.
How volatile is TSM stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 39% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 21.5%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does TSM have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 1 contract; the most recent: Department of Commerce (CHIPS Act), Up to $6.60B, 2024-25.
Is now a good time to buy TSM?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 33, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 50% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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