COIN — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year COIN is down 58.0%. Over about two years: -26.0%.
- Today it sits 59.9% below its 52-week high ($343.78) and +0.0% above the low ($137.83).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 59.9%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 44% of days. Best day: +16.5%. Worst day: -13.3%.
- Annual volatility around 72%: in a normal year a ±72% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 39% | $137.75 -0.1% | $131.61 – $144.17 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 38% | $137.58 -0.2% | $127.14 – $148.87 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 37% | $137.41 -0.3% | $124.11 – $152.15 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 37% | $137.00 -0.6% | $118.62 – $158.23 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 36% | $136.09 -1.3% | $110.46 – $167.68 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 34% | $132.69 -3.7% | $92.43 – $190.47 |
Recent momentum: -26.8% over 20 days · -10.3% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for COIN. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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How much has COIN fallen in the last year?
Coinbase Global (COIN) is down 58.0% over the last 12 months and trades at $137.83, 59.9% below its 52-week high ($343.78). 52-week range: $137.83 – $343.78.
How volatile is COIN stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 72% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 59.9%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does COIN have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy COIN?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 25 (oversold zone), price below its 50-day average and an estimated 36% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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