Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 42% | $359.91 +0.0% | $354.35 – $365.55 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 42% | $360.20 +0.1% | $350.62 – $370.04 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 42% | $360.48 +0.2% | $348.16 – $373.25 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 44% | $361.21 +0.4% | $343.86 – $379.43 |
| 1 month | Bearish | 46% | $362.80 +0.8% | $337.82 – $389.62 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 50% | $368.94 +2.6% | $326.07 – $417.45 |
Recent momentum: -8.2% over 20 days · +5.5% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Modification to build two Virginia-class attack submarines.
💡 Massive naval backlog; submarine construction is multi-year demand that is hard to cancel.
Construction of Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine hulls (SSBN 828-832).
💡 Reinforces undersea nuclear deterrence; revenue locked in for years.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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