AVGO — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Business quality and Sales engine. Most lacking: Room to grow and Faro seal.
Capped at 50 for size: it is so big that ×10 would require an off-the-charts valuation.
Worth $1.54 T. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $15.38 T.
Sales +86% last quarter (year over year) and +24% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 76%, operating margin 54%, return on equity 44%.
Free cash flow $30.6 B a year = 2.0% of its value.
Trades at 17.3× sales: 0.32 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 2% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 1.9%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 21 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year AVGO is down 14.4%. Over about two years: +91.2%.
- Today it sits 33.1% below its 52-week high ($481.57) and +9.8% above the low ($293.41).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 33.2%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +11.1%. Worst day: -12.6%.
- Annual volatility around 40%: in a normal year a ±40% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 40% | $322.65 +0.1% | $314.58 – $330.92 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 41% | $323.49 +0.4% | $309.61 – $337.99 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 41% | $324.33 +0.7% | $306.48 – $343.22 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 42% | $326.44 +1.3% | $301.32 – $353.66 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 44% | $331.14 +2.8% | $294.86 – $371.88 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 49% | $349.70 +8.5% | $286.03 – $427.54 |
Recent momentum: -11.1% over 20 days · -24.7% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for AVGO. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Could AVGO be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 50/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has AVGO fallen in the last year?
Broadcom (AVGO) is down 14.4% over the last 12 months and trades at $322.23, 33.1% below its 52-week high ($481.57). 52-week range: $293.41 – $481.57.
How volatile is AVGO stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 40% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 33.2%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does AVGO have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy AVGO?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 35, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 44% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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