Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 50% | $53.91 +0.2% | $51.63 – $56.28 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 51% | $54.17 +0.7% | $50.27 – $58.37 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 51% | $54.42 +1.2% | $49.42 – $59.93 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 51% | $55.08 +2.4% | $48.05 – $63.12 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 51% | $56.54 +5.1% | $46.40 – $68.89 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 55% | $62.48 +16.2% | $44.37 – $87.99 |
Recent momentum: +13.2% over 20 days · -1.0% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Rare-earth magnet public-private partnership; the DoD becomes its largest shareholder and buys 100% of output for ten years.
💡 Independence from China in critical magnets. The purest 'Follow the Contract' pattern there is.
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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