AAPL — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year AAPL is up 24.7%. Over about two years: +52.4%.
- Today it sits 3.0% below its 52-week high ($348.91) and +37.2% above the low ($246.63).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 13.8%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 52% of days. Best day: +4.8%. Worst day: -7.4%.
- Annual volatility around 26%: in a normal year a ±26% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 56% | $338.61 +0.1% | $333.13 – $344.17 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 57% | $339.18 +0.3% | $329.74 – $348.89 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 58% | $339.75 +0.4% | $327.59 – $352.36 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 59% | $341.19 +0.8% | $324.05 – $359.23 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 62% | $344.37 +1.8% | $319.59 – $371.07 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 67% | $356.80 +5.5% | $313.51 – $406.07 |
Recent momentum: +1.6% over 20 days · +8.0% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for AAPL. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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How much has AAPL gone up in the last year?
Apple (AAPL) is up 24.7% over the last 12 months and trades at $338.32, 3.0% below its 52-week high ($348.91). 52-week range: $246.63 – $348.91.
How volatile is AAPL stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 26% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 13.8%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does AAPL have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy AAPL?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 47, price above its 50-day average and an estimated 62% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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