VLO — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Cash it generates and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Faro seal and Room to grow.
Capped at 60 for size: it is so big that ×10 would require an off-the-charts valuation.
Worth $106 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $1.06 T.
Sales +47% last quarter (year over year) and -6% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 20%, operating margin 20%, return on equity 47%.
Free cash flow $12.6 B a year = 11.8% of its value.
Trades at 0.7× sales: 0.04 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 1% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 0.4%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (73%) · above its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 122 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year VLO is up 124.3%. Over about two years: +193.5%.
- Today it sits 17.0% below its 52-week high ($459.78) and +135.6% above the low ($161.94).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 17.0%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 56% of days. Best day: +9.2%. Worst day: -9.2%.
- Annual volatility around 40%: in a normal year a ±40% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 49% | $382.28 +0.2% | $372.86 – $391.94 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 50% | $383.94 +0.6% | $367.70 – $400.90 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 52% | $385.60 +1.1% | $364.67 – $407.73 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 55% | $389.78 +2.2% | $360.21 – $421.79 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 59% | $399.14 +4.6% | $356.02 – $447.50 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 69% | $437.01 +14.6% | $358.49 – $532.73 |
Recent momentum: -9.0% over 20 days · +27.9% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for VLO. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about VLO
Could VLO be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 60/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has VLO gone up in the last year?
Valero Energy (VLO) is up 124.3% over the last 12 months and trades at $381.46, 17.0% below its 52-week high ($459.78). 52-week range: $161.94 – $459.78.
How volatile is VLO stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 40% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 17.0%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does VLO have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy VLO?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: neutral technical bias, RSI 23 (oversold zone), price below its 50-day average and an estimated 59% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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