UNH — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year UNH is up 16.2%. Over about two years: -28.2%.
- Today it sits 8.2% below its 52-week high ($436.35) and +54.6% above the low ($259.02).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 27.3%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 46% of days. Best day: +9.4%. Worst day: -19.6%.
- Annual volatility around 24%: in a normal year a ±24% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 55% | $400.17 -0.1% | $394.15 – $406.29 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 54% | $399.64 -0.2% | $389.29 – $410.27 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 53% | $399.11 -0.3% | $385.81 – $412.87 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 53% | $397.79 -0.7% | $379.17 – $417.32 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 51% | $394.89 -1.4% | $368.39 – $423.30 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 47% | $384.03 -4.1% | $340.50 – $433.13 |
Recent momentum: +5.8% over 20 days · -1.6% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 UNH government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Express report: r3 fy26 4th qtr july
💡 Worth 0.29% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $1.09 B. Stock since the announcement: +11.9%.
Express report: r2 fy26 4th qtr july
💡 Worth 0.21% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $771 M. Stock since the announcement: +11.9%.
Express report: r1 fy26 4th qtr july
💡 Worth 0.20% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $730 M. Stock since the announcement: +11.9%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about UNH
How much has UNH gone up in the last year?
UnitedHealth (UNH) is up 16.2% over the last 12 months and trades at $400.44, 8.2% below its 52-week high ($436.35). 52-week range: $259.02 – $436.35.
How volatile is UNH stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 24% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 27.3%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does UNH have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 3 contracts; the most recent: Veterans Affairs, $1.09 B, Sep 30, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy UNH?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 62, price above its 50-day average and an estimated 51% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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