UGA — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Multibagger DNA is computed for companies, not ETFs or funds.
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year UGA is up 105.8%. Over about two years: +114.1%.
- Today it sits 12.5% below its 52-week high ($152.88) and +120.7% above the low ($60.61).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 20.3%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 57% of days. Best day: +6.3%. Worst day: -9.6%.
- Annual volatility around 39%: in a normal year a ±39% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Neutral | 49% | $133.96 +0.2% | $130.68 – $137.33 |
| 3 days | Neutral | 49% | $134.37 +0.5% | $128.71 – $140.28 |
| 1 week | Neutral | 51% | $134.78 +0.8% | $127.50 – $142.48 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 53% | $135.82 +1.5% | $125.55 – $146.92 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 57% | $138.11 +3.3% | $123.25 – $154.77 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 65% | $147.25 +10.1% | $120.90 – $179.35 |
Recent momentum: -7.9% over 20 days · +19.8% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for UGA. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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How much has UGA gone up in the last year?
United States Gasoline Fund, LP (UGA) is up 105.8% over the last 12 months and trades at $133.76, 12.5% below its 52-week high ($152.88). 52-week range: $60.61 – $152.88.
How volatile is UGA stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 39% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 20.3%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does UGA have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy UGA?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: neutral technical bias, RSI 31, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 57% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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