TPC — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year TPC is up 17.3%. Over about two years: +203.8%.
- Today it sits 19.9% below its 52-week high ($99.11) and +35.2% above the low ($58.76).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 29.4%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +13.3%. Worst day: -15.7%.
- Annual volatility around 47%: in a normal year a ±47% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 45% | $79.60 +0.2% | $77.28 – $81.98 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 47% | $79.95 +0.7% | $75.97 – $84.15 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 48% | $80.31 +1.1% | $75.18 – $85.79 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 50% | $81.21 +2.3% | $73.97 – $89.16 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 54% | $83.22 +4.8% | $72.69 – $95.28 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 62% | $91.38 +15.1% | $72.29 – $115.53 |
Recent momentum: -8.1% over 20 days · -19.9% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 TPC government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
The purpose of this design build to budget award is for the design and construction of a fuel pier and major cutter mooring at uscg base kodiak, ak.
💡 Worth 7.63% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $315 M. Stock since the announcement: -11.9%.
Design-build construction services to homeport us coast guard's fast response cutters (frc) in astoria, or (project number 30178383). new task order award.
💡 Worth 1.05% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $43 M. Stock since the announcement: -10.6%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about TPC
How much has TPC gone up in the last year?
Tutor Perini (TPC) is up 17.3% over the last 12 months and trades at $79.42, 19.9% below its 52-week high ($99.11). 52-week range: $58.76 – $99.11.
How volatile is TPC stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 47% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 29.4%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does TPC have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 2 contracts; the most recent: Homeland Security, $315 M, Sep 11, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy TPC?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 41, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 54% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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