PAYP — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Cash it generates and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Balance sheet and Faro seal.
Worth $9.8 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $97.8 B.
Sales +27% last quarter (year over year) and — last fiscal year.
Gross margin 54%, operating margin 27%, return on equity 37%.
Free cash flow $47.1 B a year = 482.0% of its value.
Trades at 0.0× sales: 0.00 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 7068% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 90.7%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 33 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the 162 sessions we have for PAYP it moved -20.5%.
- Today it sits 41.2% below its 52-week high ($24.56) and +16.7% above the low ($12.37).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 49.6%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 46% of days. Best day: +21.2%. Worst day: -10.4%.
- Annual volatility around 50%: in a normal year a ±50% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 41% | $14.42 -0.1% | $13.98 – $14.88 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 40% | $14.38 -0.4% | $13.62 – $15.18 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 38% | $14.34 -0.7% | $13.37 – $15.37 |
| 15 days | Bearish | 37% | $14.24 -1.4% | $12.90 – $15.71 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 34% | $14.02 -2.9% | $12.15 – $16.17 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 27% | $13.21 -8.5% | $10.31 – $16.92 |
Recent momentum: -5.4% over 20 days · -5.9% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for PAYP. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about PAYP
Could PAYP be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 74/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has PAYP fallen in the last year?
PayPay (PAYP) is down 20.5% over the period with data and trades at $14.44, 41.2% below its 52-week high ($24.56). 52-week range: $12.37 – $24.56.
How volatile is PAYP stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 50% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 49.6%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does PAYP have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy PAYP?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bearish technical bias, RSI 41, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 34% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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