OSK — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Cash it generates and Room to grow. Most lacking: Business quality and Sales engine.
Worth $8.9 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $88.7 B.
Sales +6% last quarter (year over year) and -3% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 15%, operating margin 7%, return on equity 11%.
Free cash flow $595 M a year = 6.7% of its value.
Trades at 0.8× sales with no growth to back it.
Net debt equal to 6% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 0.7%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (45%) · below its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 5 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year OSK is up 18.1%. Over about two years: +41.4%.
- Today it sits 18.2% below its 52-week high ($177.94) and +22.7% above the low ($118.59).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 33.1%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +7.0%. Worst day: -9.9%.
- Annual volatility around 34%: in a normal year a ±34% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 59% | $145.63 +0.1% | $142.52 – $148.81 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 59% | $145.83 +0.2% | $140.48 – $151.39 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 59% | $146.04 +0.3% | $139.15 – $153.26 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 59% | $146.54 +0.7% | $136.87 – $156.90 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 58% | $147.67 +1.5% | $133.76 – $163.02 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 59% | $152.03 +4.5% | $128.09 – $180.45 |
Recent momentum: +9.7% over 20 days · -6.3% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 OSK government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Oshkosh Defense LLC, Oshkosh, Wisconsin, was awarded a $31,972,227 modification (P00018) to contract W56HZV-22-D-0004 for systems technical support services for the Family of Heavy Tactical Vehicles systems, trailers, and associated kits.
💡 Stock since the announcement: +4.5%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about OSK
Could OSK be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 52/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has OSK gone up in the last year?
Oshkosh (OSK) is up 18.1% over the last 12 months and trades at $145.53, 18.2% below its 52-week high ($177.94). 52-week range: $118.59 – $177.94.
How volatile is OSK stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 34% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 33.1%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does OSK have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 1 contract; the most recent: Army, $32 M, Oct 14, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy OSK?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 74 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 58% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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