ORCL — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year ORCL is down 53.6%. Over about two years: -29.7%.
- Today it sits 54.6% below its 52-week high ($262.61) and +3.7% above the low ($114.99).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 56.2%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 46% of days. Best day: +12.7%. Worst day: -10.8%.
- Annual volatility around 58%: in a normal year a ±58% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 39% | $119.14 -0.1% | $114.83 – $123.60 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 38% | $118.97 -0.2% | $111.62 – $126.79 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 37% | $118.80 -0.4% | $109.42 – $128.98 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 36% | $118.38 -0.7% | $105.38 – $132.98 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 34% | $117.46 -1.5% | $99.24 – $139.03 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 31% | $114.03 -4.4% | $85.16 – $152.69 |
Recent momentum: -16.3% over 20 days · -18.9% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 ORCL government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
The purpose of this modification is to add and execute visn 15 deployments
💡 Worth 0.12% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $440 M. Stock since the announcement: -16.3%.
Fdss managed services for visns 17,9,8,1,6,5,7 and 2
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $26 M. Stock since the announcement: -17.6%.
The purpose of this modification is to add/exercise the visn 20 deployments: portland vamc, portland - vancouver vamc, boise vamc, american lake vamc, seattle vamc (va-26-00061315)
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $256 M. Stock since the announcement: -12.9%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about ORCL
How much has ORCL fallen in the last year?
Oracle (ORCL) is down 53.6% over the last 12 months and trades at $119.22, 54.6% below its 52-week high ($262.61). 52-week range: $114.99 – $262.61.
How volatile is ORCL stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 58% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 56.2%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does ORCL have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 3 contracts; the most recent: Veterans Affairs, $440 M, Sep 17, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy ORCL?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 34, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 34% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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