MSI — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Business quality and Faro seal. Most lacking: Room to grow and Sales engine.
Worth $80.6 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $806 B.
Sales +13% last quarter (year over year) and +8% last fiscal year · accelerating.
Gross margin 52%, operating margin 27%, return on equity 92%.
Free cash flow $2.0 B a year = 2.5% of its value.
Trades at 6.6× sales: 0.62 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 11% of its value.
Government contracts with firm money = 0.2% of its value · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 0.4%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month high · above its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 15 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year MSI is up 12.8%. Over about two years: +6.4%.
- Today it sits 1.0% below its 52-week high ($492.08) and +33.9% above the low ($363.83).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 21.0%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +8.2%. Worst day: -11.4%.
- Annual volatility around 23%: in a normal year a ±23% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 61% | $487.37 +0.0% | $480.33 – $494.51 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 61% | $487.49 +0.0% | $475.36 – $499.93 |
| 1 week | Strongly bullish | 62% | $487.61 +0.1% | $472.01 – $503.73 |
| 15 days | Strongly bullish | 62% | $487.91 +0.1% | $465.98 – $510.88 |
| 1 month | Strongly bullish | 62% | $488.58 +0.3% | $457.07 – $522.26 |
| 3 months | Strongly bullish | 62% | $491.12 +0.8% | $437.56 – $551.23 |
Recent momentum: +7.0% over 20 days · +4.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 MSI government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Land mobile radio infrastructure services
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $26 M. Stock since the announcement: +6.8%.
Task order for an enterprise radio system project in accordance with the dhs taccom ii mac.
💡 Worth 0.17% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $140 M. Stock since the announcement: +3.5%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about MSI
Could MSI be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 57/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has MSI gone up in the last year?
Motorola Solutions (MSI) is up 12.8% over the last 12 months and trades at $487.31, 1.0% below its 52-week high ($492.08). 52-week range: $363.83 – $492.08.
How volatile is MSI stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 23% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 21.0%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does MSI have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 2 contracts; the most recent: Homeland Security, $26 M, Sep 24, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy MSI?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bullish technical bias, RSI 81 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 62% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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