LMND — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year LMND is down 30.2%. Over about two years: +74.8%.
- Today it sits 57.3% below its 52-week high ($96.57) and +0.0% above the low ($41.19).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 57.3%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 49% of days. Best day: +34.2%. Worst day: -23.7%.
- Annual volatility around 69%: in a normal year a ±69% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 41% | $41.24 +0.1% | $39.48 – $43.07 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 41% | $41.33 +0.3% | $38.33 – $44.56 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 41% | $41.42 +0.6% | $37.59 – $45.65 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 41% | $41.65 +1.1% | $36.31 – $47.78 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 41% | $42.17 +2.4% | $34.56 – $51.45 |
| 3 months | Bearish | 42% | $44.20 +7.3% | $31.31 – $62.39 |
Recent momentum: -11.7% over 20 days · -22.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for LMND. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
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How much has LMND fallen in the last year?
Lemonade (LMND) is down 30.2% over the last 12 months and trades at $41.19, 57.3% below its 52-week high ($96.57). 52-week range: $41.19 – $96.57.
How volatile is LMND stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 69% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 57.3%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does LMND have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy LMND?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 39, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 41% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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