LDOS — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year LDOS is down 24.5%. Over about two years: -22.6%.
- Today it sits 27.8% below its 52-week high ($199.55) and +44.2% above the low ($100.00).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 49.9%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 49% of days. Best day: +10.0%. Worst day: -11.2%.
- Annual volatility around 36%: in a normal year a ±36% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 60% | $144.09 -0.1% | $140.87 – $147.38 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 59% | $143.94 -0.2% | $138.42 – $149.68 |
| 1 week | Strongly bullish | 59% | $143.79 -0.3% | $136.71 – $151.23 |
| 15 days | Strongly bullish | 57% | $143.42 -0.5% | $133.54 – $154.03 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 54% | $142.61 -1.1% | $128.60 – $158.16 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 49% | $139.57 -3.2% | $116.67 – $166.95 |
Recent momentum: +20.7% over 20 days · +4.8% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 LDOS government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Leidos Inc., Reston, Virginia, was awarded a $317,986,855 firm-fixed-price contract to provide essential system reintegration, software licensing, and hosting services for the electronic health record system known as MHS GENESIS.
💡 Worth 1.81% of the company's market value. Stock since the announcement: +16.8%.
Nci operational task order, fy26-fy27
💡 Worth 1.95% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $342 M. Stock since the announcement: +14.8%.
Functional precision medicine and response assays
💡 Worth 0.41% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $72 M. Stock since the announcement: +13.6%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
Golden Dome: The shield and who builds it$185 billion per the Pentagon, $1.2 trillion per Congress's budget office. The most ambitious missile-defense program si…6 pp. · Free preview →
Defense budget 2027: The $1.5 trillion and where it goesThe largest U.S. military spending increase in generations: +44% in a year. Ships, missiles, drones, AI and Golden Dome.…6 pp. · Free preview →
Contracts Radar: Where $220 billion actually wentTwo months of federal contracts read one by one: 258 awards, which agencies pay, which companies get paid, how much mone…8 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about LDOS
How much has LDOS fallen in the last year?
Leidos (LDOS) is down 24.5% over the last 12 months and trades at $144.16, 27.8% below its 52-week high ($199.55). 52-week range: $100.00 – $199.55.
How volatile is LDOS stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 36% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 49.9%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does LDOS have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 3 contracts; the most recent: Defense Health Agency, $318 M, Oct 13, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy LDOS?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bullish technical bias, RSI 99 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 54% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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