KGC — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Business quality and Cash it generates. Most lacking: Faro seal and Sales engine.
Worth $24.2 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $242 B.
Sales -2% last quarter (year over year) and +37% last fiscal year · slowing.
Gross margin 69%, operating margin 46%, return on equity 35%.
Free cash flow $2.5 B a year = 10.2% of its value.
Trades at 2.9× sales: 0.16 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 8% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 0.2%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 25 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year KGC is down 13.8%. Over about two years: +106.2%.
- Today it sits 46.0% below its 52-week high ($38.07) and +2.1% above the low ($20.13).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 47.1%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 49% of days. Best day: +10.3%. Worst day: -13.8%.
- Annual volatility around 53%: in a normal year a ±53% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 40% | $20.59 +0.1% | $19.92 – $21.28 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 41% | $20.65 +0.4% | $19.50 – $21.87 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 41% | $20.71 +0.7% | $19.23 – $22.30 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 41% | $20.86 +1.5% | $18.79 – $23.16 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 42% | $21.20 +3.1% | $18.21 – $24.67 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 46% | $22.53 +9.6% | $17.32 – $29.29 |
Recent momentum: -12.8% over 20 days · -25.6% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for KGC. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about KGC
Could KGC be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 73/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has KGC fallen in the last year?
Kinross Gold (KGC) is down 13.8% over the last 12 months and trades at $20.56, 46.0% below its 52-week high ($38.07). 52-week range: $20.13 – $38.07.
How volatile is KGC stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 53% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 47.1%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does KGC have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy KGC?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 34, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 42% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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