IBM — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Business quality and Cash it generates. Most lacking: Balance sheet and Sales engine.
Worth $239 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $2.39 T.
Sales +5% last quarter (year over year) and +8% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 58%, operating margin 17%, return on equity 35%.
Free cash flow $12.4 B a year = 5.2% of its value.
Trades at 3.4× sales: 0.55 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 23% of its value.
Government contracts with firm money = 0.0% of its value · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 0.1%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (40%) · above its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 26 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year IBM is down 18.6%. Over about two years: +22.4%.
- Today it sits 23.3% below its 52-week high ($329.23) and +22.7% above the low ($205.77).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 37.5%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 52% of days. Best day: +12.7%. Worst day: -25.2%.
- Annual volatility around 58%: in a normal year a ±58% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 59% | $252.61 +0.0% | $243.52 – $262.04 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 59% | $252.82 +0.1% | $237.27 – $269.38 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 58% | $253.02 +0.2% | $233.12 – $274.63 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 57% | $253.53 +0.4% | $225.79 – $284.68 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 55% | $254.67 +0.9% | $215.30 – $301.23 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 53% | $259.03 +2.6% | $193.66 – $346.48 |
Recent momentum: +14.0% over 20 days · +6.4% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 IBM government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
E-gov travel service, next generation (etsnext) travel and expense (t&e) technology managed service. mod p00020 base period year 3 transaction minimums, add pcrs 005, 006 007 008, and 010
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $34 M. Stock since the announcement: +4.2%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about IBM
Could IBM be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 52/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has IBM fallen in the last year?
International Business Machines (IBM) is down 18.6% over the last 12 months and trades at $252.51, 23.3% below its 52-week high ($329.23). 52-week range: $205.77 – $329.23.
How volatile is IBM stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 58% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 37.5%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does IBM have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 1 contract; the most recent: GSA, $34 M, Sep 11, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy IBM?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 72 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 55% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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