HON — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year HON is up 6.6%. Over about two years: +9.1%.
- Today it sits 14.0% below its 52-week high ($260.14) and +13.4% above the low ($197.32).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 22.6%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +6.4%. Worst day: -6.5%.
- Annual volatility around 27%: in a normal year a ±27% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 53% | $223.81 +0.0% | $220.00 – $227.68 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 54% | $223.89 +0.1% | $217.33 – $230.64 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 53% | $223.96 +0.1% | $215.53 – $232.73 |
| 15 days | Neutral | 53% | $224.16 +0.2% | $212.32 – $236.66 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 52% | $224.59 +0.4% | $207.60 – $242.96 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 51% | $226.24 +1.1% | $197.43 – $259.25 |
Recent momentum: +4.5% over 20 days · -9.1% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 HON government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Honeywell - management and operation of the national security campus - contract no. de-na0002839
💡 Worth 0.12% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $83 M. Stock since the announcement: +4.4%.
Honeywell Aerospace, Clearwater, Florida, has been awarded a $25,608,698 cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for the compact strategic gyroscope-maturation project.
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $1 M. Stock since the announcement: +3.7%.
Honeywell Aerospace Technologies, Minneapolis, Minnesota, is being awarded $53,866,460 for a firm-fixed-price contract for the procurement of up to 1125 components over five years representing three different parts used in ring laser gyros that are components of and support the WSN-7 inertial navigation system used…
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Stock since the announcement: +6.2%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about HON
How much has HON gone up in the last year?
Honeywell International (HON) is up 6.6% over the last 12 months and trades at $223.77, 14.0% below its 52-week high ($260.14). 52-week range: $197.32 – $260.14.
How volatile is HON stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 27% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 22.6%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does HON have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 3 contracts; the most recent: Department of Energy, $83 M, Sep 29, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy HON?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: neutral technical bias, RSI 76 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 52% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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