HII — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year HII is down 1.7%. Over about two years: +64.2%.
- Today it sits 30.9% below its 52-week high ($453.73) and +22.0% above the low ($257.05).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 43.3%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 49% of days. Best day: +14.1%. Worst day: -10.6%.
- Annual volatility around 40%: in a normal year a ±40% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 61% | $314.01 +0.1% | $306.11 – $322.12 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 61% | $314.64 +0.3% | $301.04 – $328.84 |
| 1 week | Strongly bullish | 61% | $315.26 +0.5% | $297.79 – $333.76 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 61% | $316.83 +1.0% | $292.29 – $343.44 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 60% | $320.32 +2.1% | $284.99 – $360.02 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 61% | $333.97 +6.5% | $272.78 – $408.88 |
Recent momentum: +17.7% over 20 days · -3.3% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 HII government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Huntington Ingalls Inc., Pascagoula, Mississippi was awarded a $99,089,863 modification to previously awarded contract N00024-22-C-2300.
💡 Worth 0.90% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $31 M. Stock since the announcement: +3.3%.
Huntington Ingalls Inc., Newport News, Virginia, is awarded a $5,099,973,132 fixed-ceiling incentive contract for the accomplishment of the USS Harry S.
💡 Worth 46.05% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $548 M. Stock since the announcement: +8.2%.
Huntington Ingalls Industries Unmanned Systems, Pocasset, Massachusetts, was awarded a $123,365,000 firm-fixed-price modification to previously awarded contract N00024-23-C-6308 to exercise options for Lionfish Small Unmanned Undersea Vehicle production, support equipment, and ancillary equipment.
💡 Worth 1.11% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $2 M. Stock since the announcement: +8.2%.
Part of the Virginia-class submarine program (co-builder).
💡 HII is the other major U.S. submarine yard; it rides the same naval supercycle.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
Golden Dome: The shield and who builds it$185 billion per the Pentagon, $1.2 trillion per Congress's budget office. The most ambitious missile-defense program si…6 pp. · Free preview →
Defense budget 2027: The $1.5 trillion and where it goesThe largest U.S. military spending increase in generations: +44% in a year. Ships, missiles, drones, AI and Golden Dome.…6 pp. · Free preview →
Contracts Radar: Where $220 billion actually wentTwo months of federal contracts read one by one: 258 awards, which agencies pay, which companies get paid, how much mone…8 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about HII
How much has HII fallen in the last year?
Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) is down 1.7% over the last 12 months and trades at $313.70, 30.9% below its 52-week high ($453.73). 52-week range: $257.05 – $453.73.
How volatile is HII stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 40% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 43.3%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does HII have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 4 contracts; the most recent: Navy, $99 M, Oct 16, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy HII?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bullish technical bias, RSI 85 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 60% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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