GLD — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Multibagger DNA is computed for companies, not ETFs or funds.
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year GLD is down 2.3%. Over about two years: +43.0%.
- Today it sits 27.1% below its 52-week high ($495.90) and +1.6% above the low ($355.78).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 28.3%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 54% of days. Best day: +6.4%. Worst day: -10.3%.
- Annual volatility around 23%: in a normal year a ±23% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 42% | $361.91 +0.1% | $356.61 – $367.28 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 42% | $362.43 +0.2% | $353.29 – $371.80 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 42% | $362.95 +0.4% | $351.18 – $375.11 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 43% | $364.25 +0.7% | $347.66 – $381.64 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 44% | $367.14 +1.5% | $343.16 – $392.80 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 48% | $378.37 +4.6% | $336.59 – $425.33 |
Recent momentum: -4.7% over 20 days · -9.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for GLD. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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How much has GLD fallen in the last year?
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is down 2.3% over the last 12 months and trades at $361.65, 27.1% below its 52-week high ($495.90). 52-week range: $355.78 – $495.90.
How volatile is GLD stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 23% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 28.3%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does GLD have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy GLD?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 34, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 44% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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