DBC — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Multibagger DNA is computed for companies, not ETFs or funds.
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year DBC is up 42.9%. Over about two years: +42.8%.
- Today it sits 4.8% below its 52-week high ($34.10) and +45.2% above the low ($22.36).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 16.5%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 56% of days. Best day: +3.7%. Worst day: -4.1%.
- Annual volatility around 20%: in a normal year a ±20% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 55% | $32.48 +0.1% | $32.07 – $32.90 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 56% | $32.53 +0.2% | $31.82 – $33.25 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 57% | $32.58 +0.4% | $31.67 – $33.51 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 58% | $32.69 +0.7% | $31.41 – $34.03 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 60% | $32.95 +1.5% | $31.09 – $34.92 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 66% | $33.95 +4.6% | $30.70 – $37.55 |
Recent momentum: +0.2% over 20 days · +12.3% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for DBC. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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How much has DBC gone up in the last year?
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC) is up 42.9% over the last 12 months and trades at $32.46, 4.8% below its 52-week high ($34.10). 52-week range: $22.36 – $34.10.
How volatile is DBC stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 20% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 16.5%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does DBC have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy DBC?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 35, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 60% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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