BWXT — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Price vs. growth and Room to grow. Most lacking: Business quality and Cash it generates.
Worth $12.0 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $120 B.
Sales +18% last quarter (year over year) and +18% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 22%, operating margin 10%, return on equity 28%.
Free cash flow $146 M a year = 1.2% of its value.
Trades at 3.4× sales: 0.19 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 12% of its value.
Government contracts with firm money = 0.3% of its value · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 0.4%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 50 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year BWXT is down 39.0%. Over about two years: +9.0%.
- Today it sits 45.3% below its 52-week high ($238.42) and +2.6% above the low ($127.19).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 46.7%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 45% of days. Best day: +8.5%. Worst day: -9.9%.
- Annual volatility around 41%: in a normal year a ±41% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bearish | 41% | $130.49 +0.0% | $127.19 – $133.88 |
| 3 days | Bearish | 41% | $130.54 +0.1% | $124.87 – $136.47 |
| 1 week | Bearish | 41% | $130.58 +0.1% | $123.31 – $138.29 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 40% | $130.70 +0.2% | $120.52 – $141.73 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 40% | $130.94 +0.4% | $116.43 – $147.27 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 39% | $131.90 +1.1% | $107.61 – $161.67 |
Recent momentum: -3.6% over 20 days · -23.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 BWXT government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Domestic uranium enrichment pilot plant task order 1
💡 Worth 0.30% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $36 M. Stock since the announcement: -12.6%.
Project Pele: transportable nuclear microreactor; BWXT delivered the TRISO (HALEU) fuel.
💡 Key builder of military reactors and fuel: a bet on the Pentagon's nuclear revival.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
Sector study: The nuclear renaissanceReactors switching back on, an $80 billion Westinghouse deal, small modular reactors and uranium at 30-year highs. The f…6 pp. · Free preview →
Sector study: AI's thirst for electricityBig tech will spend ~$700 billion on data centers in 2026. Each one needs power 24 hours a day. The whole chain —generat…7 pp. · Free preview →
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about BWXT
Could BWXT be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 61/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has BWXT fallen in the last year?
BWX Technologies (BWXT) is down 39.0% over the last 12 months and trades at $130.47, 45.3% below its 52-week high ($238.42). 52-week range: $127.19 – $238.42.
How volatile is BWXT stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 41% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 46.7%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does BWXT have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 2 contracts; the most recent: Department of Energy, $36 M, Sep 11, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy BWXT?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 39, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 40% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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