BAH — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Cash it generates and Room to grow. Most lacking: Balance sheet and Sales engine.
Worth $10.5 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $105 B.
Sales -4% last quarter (year over year) and -6% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 23%, operating margin 9%, return on equity 70%.
Free cash flow $789 M a year = 7.5% of its value.
Trades at 1.0× sales with no growth to back it.
Net debt equal to 42% of its value.
Government contracts with firm money = 4.6% of its value · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 1.2%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (57%) · above its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 7 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year BAH is up 6.3%. Over about two years: -51.8%.
- Today it sits 13.9% below its 52-week high ($102.23) and +47.4% above the low ($59.71).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 41.6%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +10.1%. Worst day: -11.3%.
- Annual volatility around 39%: in a normal year a ±39% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 59% | $87.89 -0.1% | $85.77 – $90.07 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 58% | $87.63 -0.4% | $84.00 – $91.43 |
| 1 week | Strongly bullish | 57% | $87.38 -0.7% | $82.72 – $92.30 |
| 15 days | Strongly bullish | 55% | $86.74 -1.5% | $80.28 – $93.73 |
| 1 month | Strongly bullish | 52% | $85.36 -3.0% | $76.30 – $95.49 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 43% | $80.27 -8.8% | $66.09 – $97.49 |
Recent momentum: +28.3% over 20 days · +15.7% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 BAH government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
The purposes of this modification are to update task order (to) sections b.7.1 and j.1 and to incrementally fund the base period (bp).
💡 Worth 0.78% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $78 M. Stock since the announcement: +19.6%.
Cdm defend group bd bridge task order | modification to adjust funding, and update attached reference documents
💡 Worth 0.43% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $43 M. Stock since the announcement: +12.9%.
P00057 partially exercises ot4
💡 Worth 0.39% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $39 M. Stock since the announcement: +12.9%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
Golden Dome: The shield and who builds it$185 billion per the Pentagon, $1.2 trillion per Congress's budget office. The most ambitious missile-defense program si…6 pp. · Free preview →
Defense budget 2027: The $1.5 trillion and where it goesThe largest U.S. military spending increase in generations: +44% in a year. Ships, missiles, drones, AI and Golden Dome.…6 pp. · Free preview →
Contracts Radar: Where $220 billion actually wentTwo months of federal contracts read one by one: 258 awards, which agencies pay, which companies get paid, how much mone…8 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about BAH
Could BAH be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 49/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has BAH gone up in the last year?
Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) is up 6.3% over the last 12 months and trades at $88.02, 13.9% below its 52-week high ($102.23). 52-week range: $59.71 – $102.23.
How volatile is BAH stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 39% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 41.6%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does BAH have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 3 contracts; the most recent: GSA, $78 M, Sep 29, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy BAH?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bullish technical bias, RSI 92 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 52% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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