BAESY — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Faro seal and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Business quality and Sales engine.
Worth $81.2 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $812 B.
Sales +8% last quarter (year over year) and +8% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 13%, operating margin 10%, return on equity 19%.
Free cash flow $2.9 B a year = 3.6% of its value.
Trades at 2.8× sales: 0.35 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net debt equal to 6% of its value.
Government contracts with firm money = 1.4% of its value · inside a Faro megatrend · insiders own 0.0%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): mid-range over 12 months (64%) · above its 200-day average · beating the S&P 500 by 2 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year BAESY is up 13.9%. Over about two years: +72.1%.
- Today it sits 10.7% below its 52-week high ($124.37) and +31.1% above the low ($84.76).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 24.0%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 49% of days. Best day: +6.5%. Worst day: -5.4%.
- Annual volatility around 28%: in a normal year a ±28% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 60% | $111.20 +0.1% | $109.25 – $113.18 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 61% | $111.44 +0.3% | $108.08 – $114.91 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 61% | $111.69 +0.5% | $107.36 – $116.19 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 62% | $112.29 +1.1% | $106.19 – $118.75 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 62% | $113.65 +2.3% | $104.81 – $123.23 |
| 3 months | Bullish | 66% | $118.96 +7.1% | $103.39 – $136.87 |
Recent momentum: +8.3% over 20 days · -7.4% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 BAESY government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
BAE Systems Land & Armaments LP, Sterling Heights, Michigan, is awarded a $230,100,000 firm-fixed-price modification to previously awarded contract for amphibious combat vehicles (ACV).
💡 Worth 0.29% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $230 M. Stock since the announcement: +3.6%.
BAE Systems Land & Armaments L.P., Minneapolis, Minnesota, is awarded a $137,658,562 firm-fixed-price, fixed-price with economic-price-adjustment, cost-plus-fixed-fee completion and term, and cost no fee definite quantity contract for Virginia-class submarine propulsors.
💡 Worth 0.17% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $26 M. Stock since the announcement: +4.2%.
BAE Systems Land & Armaments LP, York, Pennsylvania, was awarded an $818,355,026 modification (PZ0054) to contract W56HZV-23-C-0024 for armored multi-purpose vehicles.
💡 Worth 1.02% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $818 M. Stock since the announcement: +2.8%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about BAESY
Could BAESY be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 50/100 (mixed): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has BAESY gone up in the last year?
BAE Systems (BAESY) is up 13.9% over the last 12 months and trades at $111.08, 10.7% below its 52-week high ($124.37). 52-week range: $84.76 – $124.37.
How volatile is BAESY stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 28% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 24.0%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does BAESY have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 3 contracts; the most recent: Navy, $230 M, Sep 30, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy BAESY?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 77 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 62% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
🔦 Keep analyzing
Other stocks Faro watches