BA — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year BA is down 12.3%. Over about two years: +13.1%.
- Today it sits 30.4% below its 52-week high ($252.15) and +4.9% above the low ($167.14).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 33.7%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 47% of days. Best day: +10.1%. Worst day: -10.7%.
- Annual volatility around 37%: in a normal year a ±37% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 39% | $175.44 +0.0% | $171.39 – $179.59 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 39% | $175.53 +0.1% | $168.56 – $182.78 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 38% | $175.62 +0.1% | $166.67 – $185.04 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 38% | $175.83 +0.2% | $163.30 – $189.33 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 38% | $176.31 +0.5% | $158.40 – $196.25 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 38% | $178.15 +1.6% | $147.98 – $214.48 |
Recent momentum: -9.0% over 20 days · -25.2% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 BA government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
This order provides for the continued redesign and development of the V-22 Osprey Flight Control System, including replacement flight control computers, cockpit interface units, and associated test equipment for the Air Force, Marine Corps, Navy and Foreign Military Sales (FMS) customers.
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $1 M. Stock since the announcement: -1%.
The Boeing Co., Ridley Park, Pennsylvania, was awarded a $33,881,195 modification (P00005) to contract W58RGZ-23-F-0395 to add country-specific requirements (Korea) to the CH-47F Block I Chinook helicopter production line.
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Stock since the announcement: +1.2%.
This contract provides for all Windows-based subsystem computers in the F-15E MTC program to be in compliance with DoD cybersecurity requirements.
💡 Worth <0.1% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $26 M. Stock since the announcement: +0.3%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
Golden Dome: The shield and who builds it$185 billion per the Pentagon, $1.2 trillion per Congress's budget office. The most ambitious missile-defense program si…6 pp. · Free preview →
Defense budget 2027: The $1.5 trillion and where it goesThe largest U.S. military spending increase in generations: +44% in a year. Ships, missiles, drones, AI and Golden Dome.…6 pp. · Free preview →
Contracts Radar: Where $220 billion actually wentTwo months of federal contracts read one by one: 258 awards, which agencies pay, which companies get paid, how much mone…8 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about BA
How much has BA fallen in the last year?
The Boeing (BA) is down 12.3% over the last 12 months and trades at $175.40, 30.4% below its 52-week high ($252.15). 52-week range: $167.14 – $252.15.
How volatile is BA stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 37% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 33.7%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does BA have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 3 contracts; the most recent: Navy, $91 M, Oct 16, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy BA?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 39, price below its 50-day average and an estimated 38% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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