AMTM — analysis and forecast
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year AMTM is up 2.6%. Over about two years: -24.2%.
- Today it sits 40.1% below its 52-week high ($37.53) and +24.0% above the low ($18.12).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 51.7%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 48% of days. Best day: +18.2%. Worst day: -12.4%.
- Annual volatility around 42%: in a normal year a ±42% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bullish | 58% | $22.46 -0.1% | $21.87 – $23.07 |
| 3 days | Strongly bullish | 58% | $22.43 -0.2% | $21.42 – $23.49 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 57% | $22.41 -0.3% | $21.11 – $23.79 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 55% | $22.35 -0.6% | $20.54 – $24.32 |
| 1 month | Bullish | 52% | $22.21 -1.2% | $19.65 – $25.10 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 46% | $21.70 -3.4% | $17.55 – $26.82 |
Recent momentum: +23.2% over 20 days · -9.3% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 AMTM government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
Amentum Services Inc., Chantilly, Virginia, has been awarded a $26,096,110 modification (P00013) to previously awarded contract FA4890-25-C-0002 for the Air Forces Central (AFCENT) Aviation Command and Control, Operations and Maintenance Support Services II program.
💡 Worth 0.48% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $24 M. Stock since the announcement: +1.4%.
Amentum Services Inc., Germantown, Maryland, was awarded a $78,958,165 firm-fixed-price task order for HH-60W helicopter maintenance services at Joint Base Andrews.
💡 Worth 1.46% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $7 M. Stock since the announcement: +19.4%.
Aircraft maintenance and logistics support services - exercising of option year 5 and issuance of option year incremental funds.
💡 Worth 0.81% of the company's market value. Firm money at signing: $44 M. Stock since the announcement: +21.8%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
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Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about AMTM
How much has AMTM gone up in the last year?
Amentum (AMTM) is up 2.6% over the last 12 months and trades at $22.47, 40.1% below its 52-week high ($37.53). 52-week range: $18.12 – $37.53.
How volatile is AMTM stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 42% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 51.7%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does AMTM have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 3 contracts; the most recent: Air Force, $26 M, Oct 23, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy AMTM?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 83 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 52% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
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