ALHC — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Price vs. growth. Most lacking: Business quality and Faro seal.
Worth $1.5 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $14.6 B.
Sales +37% last quarter (year over year) and +46% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 12%, operating margin -0%, return on equity 13%.
Free cash flow $77 M a year = 5.3% of its value.
Trades at 0.3× sales: 0.01 per point of growth (lower is better).
Net cash equal to 28% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 2.5%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 67 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year ALHC is down 59.1%. Over about two years: -47.3%.
- Today it sits 71.5% below its 52-week high ($24.56) and +0.0% above the low ($7.00).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 71.5%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 47% of days. Best day: +25.1%. Worst day: -20.2%.
- Annual volatility around 85%: in a normal year a ±85% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Strongly bearish | 40% | $6.99 -0.1% | $6.63 – $7.37 |
| 3 days | Strongly bearish | 39% | $6.97 -0.4% | $6.36 – $7.65 |
| 1 week | Strongly bearish | 37% | $6.96 -0.6% | $6.17 – $7.84 |
| 15 days | Strongly bearish | 36% | $6.91 -1.3% | $5.84 – $8.18 |
| 1 month | Strongly bearish | 33% | $6.81 -2.7% | $5.34 – $8.70 |
| 3 months | Strongly bearish | 27% | $6.46 -7.8% | $4.23 – $9.86 |
Recent momentum: -17.6% over 20 days · -51.3% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 Government contracts
We have no notable federal contract on file for ALHC. You can look it up yourself at USASpending.gov or in the Government Sources hub.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about ALHC
Could ALHC be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 72/100 (promising): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has ALHC fallen in the last year?
Alignment Healthcare (ALHC) is down 59.1% over the last 12 months and trades at $7.00, 71.5% below its 52-week high ($24.56). 52-week range: $7.00 – $24.56.
How volatile is ALHC stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 85% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 71.5%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does ALHC have U.S. government contracts?
There is no notable federal contract in Faro's register. You can search USASpending.gov.
Is now a good time to buy ALHC?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: strongly bearish technical bias, RSI 25 (oversold zone), price below its 50-day average and an estimated 33% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
🔦 Keep analyzing
Other stocks Faro watches