ACM — analysis and forecast
🧬 Faro multibagger DNA
Does it look today like the big multibaggers (×10, ×100) did when they started? 7 traits measured with public data.
Strongest: Room to grow and Cash it generates. Most lacking: Business quality and Sales engine.
Worth $8.5 B. To grow ×10 it would have to reach $84.5 B.
Sales -14% last quarter (year over year) and +0% last fiscal year.
Gross margin 6%, operating margin -2%, return on equity 17%.
Free cash flow $380 M a year = 4.5% of its value.
Trades at 0.5× sales with no growth to back it.
Net debt equal to 27% of its value.
No recent federal contracts on the radar · outside the Faro megatrends · insiders own 0.5%.
⏱️ Timing (not scored): near its 12-month low · below its 200-day average · trailing the S&P 500 by 63 points over 12 months.
Built on the traits of 365 stocks that went ×100 (Mayer, 1962–2014) and 464 that went ×10 (Yartseva, 2009–2024), plus the Faro thesis. It does not predict the price and is not a recommendation. How it works and the ranking →
🔢 What the numbers say
The last 12 months, in plain words
- Over the last year ACM is down 50.9%. Over about two years: -39.2%.
- Today it sits 51.1% below its 52-week high ($134.35) and +13.2% above the low ($58.02).
- The worst drop from a peak in those 12 months was 56.8%. Anyone who bought at the top had to sit through that.
- It rose on 50% of days. Best day: +5.7%. Worst day: -12.4%.
- Annual volatility around 39%: in a normal year a ±39% move would not be unusual for this stock (the S&P 500 usually runs 15–20%).
🗓️ Forecast by horizon
Directional bias · probability of rising · expected price and likely range (68%)
| Horizon | Bias | Prob. up | Expected price | 68% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Bullish | 55% | $65.61 -0.1% | $64.03 – $67.24 |
| 3 days | Bullish | 54% | $65.48 -0.3% | $62.77 – $68.32 |
| 1 week | Bullish | 53% | $65.35 -0.5% | $61.88 – $69.03 |
| 15 days | Bullish | 50% | $65.03 -1.0% | $60.19 – $70.26 |
| 1 month | Neutral | 46% | $64.32 -2.1% | $57.50 – $71.95 |
| 3 months | Neutral | 38% | $61.68 -6.1% | $50.80 – $74.89 |
Recent momentum: +9.9% over 20 days · -13.4% over 60 days. The further out the horizon, the wider and more uncertain the forecast.
📈 Probability cone
📜 ACM government contracts
The public money behind this company — the "Follow the Contract" pattern.
AECOM Technical Services Inc., Los Angeles, California, was awarded a $30,674,435 firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract for maintenance and support of the Remedial Action Cost Engineering and Requirements, and Parametric Automated Cost Engineering System software systems used for…
💡 Worth 0.39% of the company's market value. Stock since the announcement: -6.7%.
📚 Go deeper: Faro Library reports
PDF reports built from official filings. Your first one is free, no email; then $1.99 each or all 33 for $25 — included in Navigator and Admiral.
The market's memory: 100 years of crashes and recoveriesSince 1927 the S&P 500 has fallen more than 20% about a dozen times. It always recovered, but sometimes it took 25 y…6 pp. · Free preview →
Study: What the big winners had in commonMicron 13x, Carpenter 12x, NVIDIA 9x… We analyze the stocks that rose most in five years within the Faro universe: which…6 pp. · Free preview →
Practical guide: How to read an earnings report in 15 minutesEvery three months companies publish their numbers. The market reacts in seconds. A 7-step method, with real 2026 exampl…6 pp. · Free preview →❓ Frequently asked questions about ACM
Could ACM be the next NVIDIA?
Its Faro multibagger DNA is 42/100 (weak): it measures how much it looks today like the big multibaggers did when they started (size, sales growth, quality, cash, price versus growth, balance sheet and public contracts). To grow ×10 it would need to be worth about 10 times today's value. Not a prediction or a recommendation.
How much has ACM fallen in the last year?
AECOM (ACM) is down 50.9% over the last 12 months and trades at $65.68, 51.1% below its 52-week high ($134.35). 52-week range: $58.02 – $134.35.
How volatile is ACM stock?
Its annualized volatility is around 39% and its worst drop from a peak over the last year was 56.8%. For reference, the S&P 500 usually moves 15–20% a year.
Does ACM have U.S. government contracts?
Yes. Faro's register lists 1 contract; the most recent: Army, $31 M (ceiling), Aug 26, 2026.
Is now a good time to buy ACM?
Nobody can know that for sure and this page is not a buy recommendation. What the data shows today: bullish technical bias, RSI 77 (overbought zone), price above its 50-day average and an estimated 46% probability of being higher in 1 month. Use it as a starting point for research, not as a signal.
🧠 How it is calculated
The verdict combines trend (20/50/200 moving averages), momentum (RSI, MACD), mean reversion (Bollinger Bands), conviction (volume) and historical drift, weighted differently for each horizon. Uncertainty is modeled with a lognormal probability cone (geometric Brownian motion). This is statistical analysis, not a crystal ball.
🔦 Keep analyzing
Other stocks Faro watches